Nvidia, AMD Shares Extend Drops: Should Investors Be Worried?
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) stocks experienced notable declines this Tuesday, following warnings from ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) regarding ongoing pressures within the semiconductor sector. The sentiment in the market raises the question: Should investors in these leading artificial intelligence (AI) chip manufacturers be concerned?
ASML’s Caution and Its Impact
ASML Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet conveyed expectations of a “more gradual” recovery in the semiconductor market than previously expected. However, he was quick to clarify that AI isn’t a contributor to these market challenges. Instead, he indicated that segments outside of the AI landscape are recovering slowly, while there remains “strong developments and upside potential” in AI.
This news triggered increased selling pressure on stocks across the semiconductor industry, including Nvidia and AMD. Notably, on the same day as ASML’s announcement, Nvidia shares dropped 4.5%, while AMD’s fell by 5.2%. These declines continued a downward trend that had begun before ASML’s alert, largely fueled by concerns over potential export restrictions on advanced chips, particularly to China.
Analysts Have Mixed Views
Despite the headlines that rattled investors, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse remained optimistic about the outlook for Nvidia, AMD, and other chip makers like Micron Technology Inc. (MU) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO). In a note to clients, Muse stated, “In no way shape or form does the company’s updated outlook indicate any change in the AI growth story.” He emphasized that Nvidia continues to generate significant revenue from AI-driven graphics processing units (GPUs), unaffected meaningfully by events in other sectors of the semiconductor market.
On the other hand, AMD’s performance, while not as robust as Nvidia’s, has still shown promise. The company recorded an impressive 115% growth in data-center revenue during the second quarter, contributing to a 9% growth in overall revenue despite notable declines in its gaming and embedded businesses. This suggests that AMD is still managing to capitalize on the AI boom, albeit at a slower rate than Nvidia.
The Broader Semiconductor Landscape
While interest and demand for AI technologies remain strong, analysts have expressed caution about the recovery of other market segments such as automotive and industrial applications. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon noted a “lukewarm” outlook for broader analog coverage in these areas, indicating that recovery could take longer than originally anticipated.
This caution is not unfounded, as ASML’s warning strongly influenced the stock market, particularly impacting U.S. peers in the semiconductor equipment space—KLA Corp. (KLAC) saw a staggering 14.7% drop, with Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) and Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) also experiencing significant declines of 10.7% and 10.9%, respectively.
Government Policy and Potential Export Restrictions
A critical factor weighing on investor sentiment is the potential for further government restrictions on the export of advanced AI semiconductors. Bloomberg News reported that the Biden administration is contemplating sales caps on such technologies, which may extend to markets in the Middle East. Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, commented that these developments reflect a potential shift in U.S. policy towards a “national-security economy,” further complicating the outlook for Nvidia and AMD.
Market Volatility and Future Prospects
Nvidia’s shares declined from a record-high close on Monday, and the volatility observed in its stock is noteworthy. According to analysts at Datatrek, Nvidia’s volatility relative to the S&P 500 is now double what it was a decade ago. This situation illustrates how a larger market cap does not necessarily equate to a less volatile stock, particularly when the company is navigating new technological frontiers and explosive market opportunities.
Conclusion
In summary, while Nvidia and AMD’s recent stock declines can be attributed to external pressures from the semiconductor market and potential government restrictions, many analysts remain optimistic about the long-term growth prospects within the AI sector. It’s crucial for investors to weigh these concerns against the robust demand for AI technology as they assess their position in these influential companies.